During the Great Recession of 2008, unemployment rates rose, housing prices skyrocketed and stock portfolios plummeted. The severe economic downturn in 2008 correlates with a nationwide decrease in birth rates, which has been projected to lead to a decline in the number of college-age students known as the “demographic cliff” or “enrollment cliff.”
The most recent data from 2023 suggests there will be a decline in the number of traditional-age college students by more than 15% across the next five to 10 years.
“Nationwide, it’s a considerable issue,” said Mike Baumgartner, executive director of Nebraska’s Coordinating Commission for Postsecondary Education.
The demographic cliff has been expected since the American population started having fewer babies during the Great Recession. Nationally, the economy recovered and started to grow again in June 2009, but birth rates have continued to fall.
This shift could create a crisis for higher education, the economy and ultimately all of society. Fewer college graduates will be able to fill jobs requiring a college education, and there will be less new workers to fill the labor market.
For example, as Baby Boomers age, it will become more difficult to supply the healthcare workers needed to support the aging population.
Through the 1990s and early 2000s, the fertility rate in the United States was around two children per woman. In 2023, the fertility rate was approximately 1.6 births per woman. The country needs 2.1 births per woman to maintain the nation’s population through births alone.
The generation of kids born during and after the recession is now reaching the age where they graduate high school and traditionally go to college. Beginning in the fall of 2025, college recruiting offices are projected to see a drop in the number of applicants among the next class of traditional-age college students.
“When you look at what we’re seeing already, it’s apparent that there are fewer college-ready students graduating from Nebraska high schools,” said Kelly Bartling, vice chancellor for enrollment management and marketing at UNK.
The enrollment cliff is projected to be worst in the Northeast and Western regions of the United States, where fertility rates are generally lower and young families have been migrating out of these regions toward the South.
Baumgartner said the impact of the demographic cliff will not be as dramatic in Nebraska as in other states. This is partially because Nebraska has always been a national leader in the percentage of students who go on to college.
“Just because we haven’t seen such dramatics doesn’t mean we’re not impacted by that enrollment,” Baumgartner said. “All of the states that are more impacted are also looking for students for their colleges and universities, so they’re trying to attract students from Nebraska, and we try to attract students from those states as well, and there are less of them to come.”
There are several factors that contribute to this drop off, including a diminishing supply of young people and deeper shifts in societal attitudes about childbearing.
Among young Americans, there is a growing disdain for nuclear families and traditional gender roles. Shifting attitudes raise the question of whether young couples are delaying or forgoing having children altogether.
Economic conditions, such as student debt, lack of paid family leave, high costs of childcare and unaffordable home ownership, create a sense of instability among families and could play a role in the postponement of parenting.
The Institute for Family Studies found no other factor limits childbearing goals more than housing costs. Homeownership rates for Americans under 35 have declined from 50% to 30% since 1980.
Young Americans, women especially, are prioritizing individual goals, such as education and careers, compared to committed life partnerships. Between 2012 and 2023, young women became increasingly liberal, while young men became more conservative.
A growing divide between young women and men on cultural and political issues, such as birth control, abortion rights and the role of women in society, influences the shifts in societal attitudes that are contributing to declining birth rates.
There has also been a growing trend of young Americans foregoing college and directly entering the workforce after graduating from high school. For some Americans, higher education isn’t as important as it has been historically.
“The narrative about higher education in general is cloudy,” Baumgartner said. “People are questioning the value. Part of it for loans and part of it because they’re concerned the payoff isn’t as big as it used to be in the job market.”
The Pew Research Center found one in four Americans said having a bachelor’s degree is very important to getting a good job. The proportion of high school graduates going straight to college fell from 70% in 2016 to 62% in 2022.
“It’s a difficult recruiting environment when wages are high and demand for workers is high out in the marketplace,” Bartling said. “It’s not just about what you can earn now, but what does your future earnings look like? What does your life look like if you make the decision to go directly into the workplace and not take advantage of higher education?”
Baumgartner said employers are looking more and more at skills rather than degrees, and that prospective students are picking up on that. There has been an increase in young people interested in dual enrollment and community college courses that are skills-based, such as classes in manufacturing, health, welding and information technology. Having a certification from high school in a particular skill helps young people go directly into employment.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the median weekly earnings of the nation’s 110.8 million full-time workers who were age 25 or older was $1,258 in the first quarter of 2025. Those without a high school diploma had median weekly earnings of $743. High school graduates with no college education had median weekly earnings of $953. Those with some college education or an associate degree had median weekly earnings of $1,096 and workers with at least a bachelor’s degree had median weekly earnings of $1,754.
“Everybody needs to make a decision about whether they think that education and post-secondary education is going to pay off in the long term, and how much they’re willing to spend for it,” Baumgartner said.
At UNK, enrollment has been slowly decreasing, with there being 990 first-time freshmen and a total of 5,274 undergraduate students in the fall of 2014. For the fall of 2024, there were 875 first-time freshmen and a total of 4,213 undergraduate students enrolled.
Across the country, there was a decline of more than 350,000 enrolled students during the first year of the pandemic alone, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. There are more than 2.7 million fewer students than there were at the start of the last decade.
“What we’re observing nationally relates to the changing desires of students who want to see a more direct connection between their planned career and what they want to learn in higher education,” Bartling said.
The cause of the enrollment cliff extends beyond an aging population. Bartling said there is a continued scrutiny over the value of a college degree and that prospective families look at the value of a college education relative to what their potential salaries will be. She said this may be the cause of a growing demand for online or micro-credential options.
There is a changing dynamic of what students are looking for. Eighteen-year-olds and their families are no longer willing to pay five-figure tuition costs on top of room and board fees to attend college full-time for eight semesters.
Prospective students are also looking for more scholarships and aid in the college decision-making process.
“More than anything, students and families are looking for the deal and wanting to see what the best deal for them is, which often revolves around going more toward institutions that are offering them higher-dollar scholarships,” Bartling said.
This creates increased pressure on colleges to package, finance and sell themselves at an affordable price compared to their competitors.
To combat the projected enrollment cliff, colleges can adjust their recruitment efforts to target more diverse populations of prospective students. Institutions could focus on nontraditional students, such as international students, students over the age of 25, military personnel and underrepresented groups.
“Students are increasingly diverse and have needs surrounding our ability to support them, including through the recruitment process,” Bartling said.
Nathan Grawe, a professor of economics at Carleton College in Northfield, Minnesota, and an expert in higher education enrollment based on demographics, recommends colleges investigate new markets and encourages higher educational institutions to increase its service of “life-long learners.”
In central Nebraska, there is an increasing Hispanic population. Over the last decade, the University’s Hispanic enrollment has increased by 25%. Today, it makes up about 15% of UNK’s population. Nationwide, the Hispanic student population is expected to rise from 26% to 36% by 2041.
Baumgartner said it is important that post-secondary education institutions also continue to make connections with first-generation students. As demographics of Nebraska change, there are more first-generation students now than in the past. Outreach programs, like TRIO, that target this population can help maintain enrollment numbers.
While UNK has been trying to increase its recruitment efforts towards the Hispanic population, Bartling said the University doesn’t have the resources available to pursue other student types besides first-time attendees who are enrolling right out of high school. UNK’s recruitment budget focuses on first-time freshman enrollment, and increasing recruitment of nontraditional or transfer students would involve taking funds away from one area to redeploy into another.
The University of Nebraska system is currently facing budget challenges on the state and federal side. UNK uses federal research funds to support specific outreach and scholarship programs. Bartling said she is concerned that some of those resources could be eliminated as the federal financial landscape continues to change, which would create further challenges to enrollment.
“The federal government’s primary role in higher education is affordability,” Baumgartner said. “If there are changes made to the student loan program, if it’s not available to the same extent to students, that’ll have an impact on enrollment.”
State budget challenges also put pressure on institutions. When state budget allocations for educational institutions are below inflation, tuition must be raised and universities must evaluate their program and course offerings, which influences enrollment.
Bartling said UNK administrators are also looking into improving retention in the face of declining enrollment.
“Higher retention rates mean enrollments can hold steady even if the number of students originally entering college falls,” Grawe said in an email.
Every two or three years, UNK refines its primary messaging and tagline in adjustment with what will attract students. Following the pandemic, students sought out campus experiences that support social development and a need for belonging. UNK used this desire in their “Power of the Herd” advertising.
“It’s a function of asking students, listening to students, observing their behavior, looking at the trends, looking at competitors, looking at what the recommendations are from higher education recruitment professionals and trying to figure out all of the subtle ways that we can use different types of messages to connect,” Bartling said.
The impact of the demographic cliff has yet to be seen in Nebraska. Across the nation, several colleges have closed because of declining enrollment and increased financial burdens.
